Saturday, September 12, 2009

Forex Commentaries

  • The dollar was mixed on Friday, sharply lower versus the yen but modestly higher against the commodity currencies. US consumer confidence rose more than expected, boosted by the recent rally on Wall Street. Wholesale inventories fell for a record eleventh straight month while wholesale sales gained, indicating a US economic recovery in on track. The S&P 500 fell 1.41 points to 1,042.73, the first decline in six days. The USD/JPY plunged following the penetration of the 91.50 support. The euro was flat. Sterling rose modestly, supported by higher UK producer-price inflation. The Australian and Canadian dollars declined as commodity prices fell despite China’s better-than-expected industrial production.

  • The dollar index fell for a sixth consecutive day, the longest loosing streak since the beginning of the stock market rally in March. Despite weakness in US stock market prices, the dollar index declined 0.13 points to 76.69 today, approaching the 76-area support. Stocks are overbought and usually weak in September/October, and the dollar usually appreciates during the same time. We believe there is a good chance that the dollar may find support despite strong downward momentum and solidly negative sentiment.

www.cmsfx.com

Financial and Economic News and Comments

US & Canada

  • US import prices rose a more-than-expected 2.0% m/m in August, the fifth rise in six months, on higher energy prices, after a 0.7% m/m decline in July, data from the Labor Department showed. Excluding petroleum, import prices advanced 0.4% m/m. Export prices climbed 0.7% m/m in August, driven by higher nonagricultural export prices, after a 0.3 m/m decline in July. Import prices dropped 15.0% y/y; export prices decreased 6.1% y/y.

www.cmsfx.com

The Reuters/University of Michigan US

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