Saturday, September 12, 2009

Auto and Truck Sales

  • Source: Individual auto manufacturers, seasonal factors by the Commerce Department.
  • Release Time: Varies by auto maker from the first business day to the third business day of the month (data for month prior).
    • In Brief

    Auto and Truck Sales measure the monthly sales of all domestically produced vehicles. They are considered an important indicator of consumer demand, accounting for roughly 25% of total retail sales. Demand for big ticket items such as autos and trucks tends to be interest rate sensitive, making the motor vehicle sector a leading indicator of business cycles.

    Each auto maker reports sales individually. The reports are typically released over the course of the first three business days of the month. Using the individual reports, a total annual sales pace can be calculated after applying Commerce Department seasonal factors. It is this annual sales pace that the market refers to when discussing auto and truck sales for the month.

    In Depth

    Vehicle sales figures rarely grab the attention of the market probably for two reasons. First, though the specifics of the data are not terribly difficult to understand, their implications are a little hard to trace. Second, unlike many economic releases, vehicle sales are not released all at once and at the same time every month. This makes it difficult for the market to quickly interpret what the numbers mean for the overall consumption picture and to react accordingly.

    This is what happens in terms of vehicle sales during the course of any given month:

    1. The individual vehicle manufacturers report their sales results during the first three or four days of the month.
    2. A day after the last manufacturer reports the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its estimate of unit auto sales.
    3. About a week after that the BEA releases its estimate of unit truck sales.
    4. The Census Bureau releases its retail sales report, including a measure of sales at automotive dealers, usually around the 13th of the month.
    5. Roughly two weeks after that the BEA releases its personal income and outlays release, including a measure of spending on motor vehicles and parts.

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